Economy
Fitch Lauds Rise in Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows to Nigeria
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘.
In its latest rating released last Friday, the global agency pointed out that the positive outlook partly reflected reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.
According to Fitch, “Nigeria’s rating is supported by its large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves. It is constrained by weak governance indicators relative to peers, high hydrocarbon dependence, limited crude oil production capacity, weak net FX reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges, and structurally low, albeit improving, non-oil revenue.”
It noted that in Nigeria, exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved; CBN’s financing of the government scaled back, with administrative efficiency measures being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.
“The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market. Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.
“The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed. Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of $4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding $2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).
“Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71 per cent post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile. However, Fitch views continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign’s credit profile,” it stated.
Fitch anticipated further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in the second half of 2024, following the 600 basis points hike to 24.75 per cent since February 2024, alongside tightening of reserve requirements and, “strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR.”
“We project inflation, which rose to 33.2 per cent year-on-year in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3 per cent in 2024 and 18.2 per cent in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5 per cent.
“Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3 percentage points (pp) in 2024 to 4.5 per cent of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than we projected at our last review). This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.
“We project a two pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6 per cent, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1 per cent in 2025. Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN ‘Ways and Means’ overdraft this year, and banks’ healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.
“We expect oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65 mbpd capacity. This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand. We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages,” it added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed flat on Wednesday, February 26 with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) static at 3,268.81 points and the market capitalization unchanged at N1.851 trillion.
The alternative stock exchange closed flat at midweek despite recording six price movers, with two in the green region and four in the red territory.
On the gainers’ side Afriland Properties Plc and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, with the former rising by N1.12 to N22.80 per unit from the preceding day’s N21.68 per unit and the latter expanding by 76 Kobo to settle at N39.86 per share compared with Tuesday’s closing price of N39.10 per share.
However, First Trust Microfinance Bank Plc lost 5 kobo to close at 47 Kobo per unit compared with the previous day’s 52 Kobo per unit, Geo Fluids dropped 34 Kobo to settle at N3.58 per share versus the preceding session’s N3.24 per share, UBN Property Plc went down by 10 Kobo to finish at N1.75 per unit, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1.85 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc declined by 14 Kobo to close at N22.01 per share versus N22.15 per share.
During yesterday’s session, the volume of securities transacted by investors jumped by 99.3 per cent to 1.2 million units from the 605,399 units transacted in the previous trading day.
However, the value of transactions slid by 28.5 per cent to N10.6 million from N14.8 million, while the number of deals went up by 58.3 per cent to 38 deals from 24 deals recorded on Tuesday.
At the close of business, Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 533.8 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by Afriland Properties Plc with 16.4 million units valued at 335.2 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 8.3 million units valued at N329.2 million.
Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc ended the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 69.7 million units worth N23.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 10.9 million units sold for N51.9 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 8.3 million units valued at N329.2 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira closed flat on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Wednesday, February 26 at N1,501.95/$1.
Also, the value of the local currency against the Pound Sterling and the Euro remained unchanged in the official market during the session at N1,894.72/£1 and N1,570.11/€1 apiece.
However, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the United States currency by N10 at midweek to quote at N1,500/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,490/$1.
The outcome of the local currency comes amid ease in the wider economy and recent moves like clearing backlogs, which have led to the country’s foreign reserves losing over $2 billion in the last month.
However, market analysts fear that the continued drop in the foreign reserves may only offer temporary respite to the Naira.
In the cryptocurrency market, most of the tokens fell on Wednesday after the US President, Mr Donald Trump, said he plans to impose a 25 per cent tariff on the European Union (EU) during his first cabinet meeting.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) depreciated by more than 3 per cent in the last 24 hours to close at $85,878.47.
After the recent market selloff, there were calls that the drop might have been the bottom but Mr Trump’s EU tariff plans seem to have dampened market optimism.
The American President claimed that the 27-member union does not accept US cars and farm products while the US buys from the bloc.
On its part, the EU said it will react firmly and immediately against “unjustified barriers to free and fair trade”
Ethereum (ETH) slumped by 5.9 per cent to $2,341.69, Ripple (XRP) went down by 3.7 per cent to $2.20, Cardano (ADA) fell by 2.9 per cent to trade at $0.6625, Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to $0.2076, Binance Coin (BNB) weakened by 1.2 per cent to $614.13, and Solana (SOL) declined by 1.0 per cent to $140.03.
But Litecoin (LTC) recorded a 6.9 per cent appreciation to quote at $126.46, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited recorded its first gain this week, with a marginal 0.02 per cent rise on Wednesday, showing resilience in the face of adversities.
Also, investor sentiment turned bullish after closing weak in the past trading sessions.
Yesterday, the bourse ended with 30 price gainers and 15 price losers, representing a positive market breadth index.
UH REIT gained 9.94 per cent to settle at N44.25, Africa Prudential jumped by 9.90 per cent to N33.30, Caverton soared by 9.87 per cent after a deal with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to N2.45, Omatek rose by 8.22 per cent to 79 Kobo, and Lasaco Assurance grew by 6.92 per cent to N3.09.
On the flip side, Guinea Insurance tumbled by 10.00 per cent to 72 Kobo, Eunisell crumbled by 9.68 per cent to N9.80, The Initiates declined by 8.02 per cent to N3.67, Oando shed 7.69 per cent to sell for N48.00, and Union Dicon dropped 7.50 per cent to trade at N5.55.
During the midweek session, the consumer goods counter chalked up 0.17 per cent, the insurance index appreciated by 0.16 per cent, and the industrial goods sector improved by 0.01 per cent.
However, the energy space gave up 0.71 per cent, and the banking sector depreciated by 0.21 per cent, while the commodity counter closed flat.
When Customs Street closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 17.38 points to 107,798.99 points from 107,781.61 points and the market capitalisation added N11 billion to finish at N67.179 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N67.168 trillion.
Business Post reports that 245.5 million stocks worth N8.4 billion exchanged hands in 10,098 deals on Wednesday, in contrast to the 363.0 million stocks valued at N10.1 billion transacted in 13,753 deals on Tuesday.
This indicated that the trading volume, value and number of deals went down by 32.37 per cent, 16.83 per cent, and 26.58 per cent, respectively.
Access Holdings led the activity chart with 36.6 million shares sold for N937.9 million, Zenith Bank transacted 26.8 million equities worth N1.3 billion, Sterling Holdings exchanged 11.3 million stocks valued at N62.3 million, Jaiz Bank traded 10.9 million equities worth N36.1 million, and AIICO Insurance transacted 10.8 million stocks for N17.9 million.
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