Tesla’s stock price has displayed a significant degree of volatility throughout 2021. It’s no wonder — it feels like everything was volatile this year. An ever-changing political atmosphere, ongoing societal shifts, and a stubborn pandemic have been subject to winds of change. Meanwhile, the auto sector was at the mercy of a serious chip supply shortage.
That said, it appears Tesla has gotten most of its supply chain issues under control faster than most of its competition. Even though Tesla’s share price has bounced around a bit this year, according to Brian Sozzi at Yahoo Finance, “Tesla’s stock has a clear shot to more fertile grounds.”
Sozzi connected with Wedbush analyst Dan Ives to get his take on Tesla. According to Ives, “Demand for China is the linchpin. As capacity builds in Berlin and Austin [in 2022] that’s what I think sends Tesla’s stock to $1,400 as our base case. Our bull case is $1,800.”
Above: A look at Tesla’s ongoing share price volatility (and growth trajectory) since January 1st, 2020 (Source: Yahoo Finance)
Ives rates Tesla at Outperform and estimates 40% of Tesla’s deliveries in 2022 will be derived from the lucrative China market. In addition, Ives believes supply chain issues should abate in 2022. And, in the short term, Tesla could surprise the Street by delivering close to 1.5 million units by year-end.
According to Sozzi, “Tesla shares have come under pressure in December as CEO Elon Musk sells down his stake in the company to meet tax obligations. Musk has sold roughly 15.6 million shares for a shade over $16 billion, bringing him close to unloading 10% of his stake in the company as planned.” With Musk’s stock sale ending, Tesla shares could rise.
Another analyst, Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Rosner notes, “We continue to see large upside to 2022 consensus expectations… battery technology, capacity and especially cost will continue to accelerate the world’s shift to electric vehicles and extend Tesla’s lead considerably. It should also enable Tesla to keep expanding its operating margins, likely exceeding 20% over the next few years, representing very best-in-class performance.”