EXCLUSIVE: Tesla Delivery Forecast Expert Expects Lower Numbers

EXCLUSIVE: Tesla Delivery Forecast Expert Expects Lower Numbers

  • Troy Teslike is considered an expert when it comes to predicting Tesla quarterly delivery and production figures.
  • A look at what goes into Teslike’s estimates and what’s expected for the second quarter.

Electric vehicle leader Tesla Inc TSLA is expected to report second-quarter deliveries this week, with estimates seeing a decline on a year-over-year basis from the prior fiscal year.

Analysts and Tesla experts are sharing their estimates ahead of the highly anticipated report. Benzinga spoke to one expert on what goes into making accurate estimates.

Making Accurate Tesla Estimates: While many automotive companies report vehicle production and deliveries on a monthly or quarterly basis, there are likely no company figures followed as closely as those of electric vehicle company Tesla.

Consensus estimates from analysts stand at 441,000 deliveries for Tesla in the second quarter. Using data from several leading analysts, Tesla lists a compiled consensus estimate of 437,812 units for the second quarter.

Tesla delivery expert Troy Teslike, who shares his estimates on social media platform X and early with Patreon subscribers, has a second-quarter estimate of 423,000 deliveries.

“The 441,000 consensus number includes outdated estimates from two months ago,” Teslike told Benzinga.

Teslike said Tesla conducts a survey with analysts at the end of each quarter, but it didn’t happen this time due to changes with Tesla’s investor relations leadership.

One of the big variables in the second quarter could be deliveries in China, with some analysts seeing a mini recovery of sorts for the region.

“It’s not exactly a recovery. Tesla sales in China this year are tracking last year’s numbers pretty closely, but they’re slightly lower.”

Teslike referenced Tesla having 132,847 China deliveries in the first quarter, compared to 137,683 in last year’s first quarter. Teslike’s estimates includes 150,100 deliveries for China in the second quarter compared to 159,480 in the region in last year’s second quarter, for a decline of 9,380 units.

The Tesla delivery estimate expert uses a variety of sources to make his estimates including VIN numbers, vehicle registration data in 26 countries, production and sales milestones, inventory, export data, shipping data, media sources and conference calls.

“I track Tesla sales in all countries and Tesla’s production in all factories. I’m obsessed with Tesla and I love using Google Sheets.”

Teslike has an average error rate of 1.2% for production and 2.7% for deliveries over the last 12 quarters.

“My production estimates are more accurate because I use Vehicle Identification Numbers to calculate production, and it works well.”

Why It’s Important: The second quarter earnings are the next catalyst for Tesla, but many analysts are already looking ahead to the company’s Aug. 8 robtaxi day.

“The market expects pricing to be ~$25,000, which we believe will help to boost additional EV customer demand and add pressure on competitors, particularly those with negative gross margins,” Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said.

The analyst has an Overweight rating and $230 price target.

Sheppard doesn’t expect a robotaxi rollout before 2027, but calls the upcoming launch “a meaningful business segment” for Tesla over the long term.

“We expect future revenues from FSD and robotaxi to be fundamental to TSLA’s bullish thesis over the long term.”

Wells Fargo sees declining delivery growth for Tesla coming from lower demand.

Analyst Colin Langan has an Underweight rating and $120 price target.

“We remain concerned with recent moderating trends, across all three key regions (US, EU, China),” Langan said.

The analyst said aggressive competition in China could also continue to impact Tesla.

“We see disappointing fundamentals driven by lower deliveries & price cuts driving ~44% y/y EPS deterioration in 2024. Moreover, we are concerned about Model 2 demand & margin profile for a smaller, mass-market vehicle.”

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is among those who think China results could provide a mini rebound for Tesla’s second quarter.

The analyst sees Tesla’s second quarter deliveries coming closer to the Street’s estimate of 435,000 units.

“Looking at the June quarter, we have seen some signs of stabilization in pricing for Tesla over the past few months as it appears the lion’s share of the price cuts are now in the rear-view mirror,” Ives said.

Ives is looking ahead to the Aug. 8 event.

“We believe the Aug. 8 robotaxi day will be a key historical moment for the Tesla story that we see as a near-term catalyst.”

The analyst said the robotaxi day could be key to getting Tesla to a $1 trillion valuation once again, with the autonomous and FSD visions “taking hold for Tesla.”

“While delivery numbers next week are very important the Street is starting to focus on the next growth driver at Tesla now forming with the worst of the demand doldrums in the rear-view mirror heading into 2H.”

TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares rose 6% to $209.86 on Monday, versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $299.29. Tesla stock is down 18% over the last year and down 16% year-to-date in 2024.

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