Analyst highlights 3 numbers that matter to Tesla

Analyst highlights 3 numbers that matter to Tesla

  • Tesla shares have been on a downtrend since the company reported its third-quarter results in mid-October.
  • Fund manager Gary Black sees the sell-off as overdone and highlighted imminent catalysts that can lift the sagging stock.

Tesla, Inc. is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results after the market close on Jan. 24, and the company is widely expected to report lower revenue and earnings relative to the year-ago period.



What Happened: When Tesla releases its quarterly scorecard, three numbers will matter, said Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black.

Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share: Consensus calls for 73 cents, marking a 39% year-over-year drop

Auto gross margin, excluding regulatory credit: 17% estimate versus 16.3% in the third quarter

2024 deliveries: 2.195 million estimate, marking a 21.1% year-over-year increase

Black said he views the consensus core auto gross margin estimate of 17% to be high and instead sees the number at 16%. Consequently, the fund manager’s adjusted earnings per share estimate for Tesla is at 70 cents.



Why It’s Important: After cutting prices steeply and successively in the first half of 2023, the company stalled downward price adjustments toward the end of the year. It, in fact, raised prices in China and in the U.S.

Tesla shares have been on a downtrend since the company reported its third-quarter results in mid-October. The double miss in the quarter spooked investors and has weighed down on the shares since then.

The stock did not get a lift from the Cybertruck launch in late November. Black believes the sell-off is overdone.

”4Q earnings and FY24 volume guidance are coming, the Cybertruck halo effect is real, the $7,500 US EV rebate is now officially off invoice, FSD L4 is coming soon, and the $25K next gen vehicle will likely come sooner than investors expect,” he said.



Tesla stock ended Friday’s session down 3.67% at $218.89, according to Benzinga Pro data, with the sell-off attributable to renewed price cuts in China. So far in January, the stock has lost about 12%.

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