Travel/Tourism
Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation
The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.
Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.
In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.
“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.
But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.
This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.
Investment challenges in the aviation industry
The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.
“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.
He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”
Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.
Gearing up for global growth
Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.
This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.
“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.
Maximising available opportunities
By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.
The Governor of Plateau State, Mr Caleb Mutfwang, has assured full government support for the N8.5 billion Hill Station Resort revitalization project, embarked on by Hillside Hospitality Limited, an investee company of Strom Infrastructure Investments and Management Limited. The renewed commitment came during a high-level stakeholder engagement meeting aimed at accelerating the historic resort’s transformation.
Speaking through the Secretary to the State Government, in Jos, Plateau State, on Monday, Mr Samuel Jatau, Governor Mutfwang emphasized the project’s significance to Plateau’s development agenda.
“The people of Plateau are diligent, hardworking, and committed. We will support and patronise this development to ensure its success,” he said.
The ambitious project, set to commence construction in March 2025, represents a strategic partnership between the Plateau State Government and Hillside Hospitality Limited. Following the signing of the Heads of Terms Agreement in July 2024, the initiative aims to restore the 1938 structure while introducing modern amenities and luxury facilities.
Speaking on the project’s vision, the Director of Hillside Hospitality Limited, Mr Kolapo Joseph, described the Hill Station project as a groundbreaking initiative that seeks to transform hospitality and tourism in Plateau State.
“This project is about more than just revitalisation, it is a dedicated effort to honour Hill Station’s rich heritage while introducing world-class hospitality standards.
“Our vision is to create a destination that seamlessly integrates luxury, culture, and nature, ensuring an exceptional experience for visitors in the heart of Jos.
“We recognise that Plateau State holds immense potential as a hospitality hub, and we are committed to working closely with all stakeholders to ensure this transformation drives economic growth, generates employment, and instils a renewed sense of pride in the community.
“Through collaboration and strategic investment, we aim to develop Hill Station Resort into a landmark destination that reflects the very best of Nigerian tourism,” he stated.
Mr Joseph expressed gratitude for the continued support from the Plateau State Government and private sector partners, adding: “This is not just an investment in infrastructure; it is an investment in Plateau’s future. We are creating a resort that will attract business and leisure travelers alike, unlocking new opportunities for the local economy while preserving the unique identity of this historic site.
“With the right partnerships, we will position Plateau State as a premier global tourism destination, one that showcases its rich cultural heritage and natural beauty to the world.”
In his remarks, another Director of Hillside Hospitality, Mr Hakeem Condotti, highlighted Strom Infrastructure’s deep connection to Plateau State through its involvement with NESCO Nigeria.
“This investment demonstrates our commitment to preserving and enhancing historical landmarks while driving economic growth in the region,” he said.
The revitalized resort, scheduled for commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2025, will feature state-of-the-art conference facilities, premium accommodations, and leisure amenities, positioning Jos as a premier destination for business and leisure travel.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Two major airlines operating in the Nigerian airspace, Emirates and Air Peace, have signed an interline agreement to allow passengers enjoy frictionless single-ticket travel and simplified baggage throughput.
This deal will enable passengers flying from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to Nigeria enjoy onward connections to Asaba, Akure, Benin City, Calabar, Enugu, Ilorin, Kaduna and Owerri, Abuja, Kano, Uyo, Port Harcourt and Warri.
Emirates operates the Dubai-Lagos route with a Boeing 777-300ER and some of its passengers continue their journeys to the above cities through other airlines, but with this interline agreement, when they land in Lagos, Air Peace will move them to the other cities with ease,
“Emirates is a steadfast partner of Nigeria’s tourism, trade and aviation sectors. This partnership with Air Peace is the next step on this journey, bolstering our connectivity and introducing more travel options for corporate leisure, and travellers visiting friends and family to and from Nigeria.
“We look forward to deepening our strategic partnership with Air Peace in the future to enhance the benefits for our mutual customers,” the Deputy President and Chief Commercial Officer for Emirates, Adnan Kazim, said.
Also commenting, the Chief Operating Officer of Air Peace, Ms Oluwatoyin Olajide, said, “We are excited about this strategic interline partnership between Air Peace and Emirates, which is a significant step towards enhancing global connectivity for Nigerian travellers.
“It aligns with our mission to provide seamless, world-class travel experiences while expanding our route network and international reach.
“This collaboration not only expands Air Peace’s international reach but also offers Nigerians arriving from Dubai seamless access to key domestic destinations, including Asaba, Akure, Benin City, Calabar, Enugu, Ilorin, Kaduna, and Owerri.
“By improving ease of travel, we are boosting business, tourism, and trade opportunities, further strengthening economic ties between Nigeria and the UAE.
“This partnership also reinforces Nigeria’s aviation sector by enhancing connectivity, efficiency and positioning our country as a critical hub for regional and global travel. At Air Peace, we remain committed to providing greater connectivity, convenience, and world-class service for our passengers.”
The latest forecast from Astons, suggests that the number of applicants looking to secure a Greek Golden Visa in 2024 is set to increase for the fourth consecutive year.
Astons has analysed data around the number of Greek Golden Visa applications submitted on an annual basis between 2019 and November 2024, before forecasting what 2024’s annual application total is set to be once December’s numbers are accounted for.
The analysis reveals that 2024 finished on a high when it comes to demand for Greek Golden Visas.
By November, the estimated total number of applications stood at 8,059, with Aston’s analysis revealing that 995 were submitted in October alone, 914 submitted in November, and a forecasted total of 778 submitted in December.
2024’s enormous demand for Greek Golden Visas was driven by investors looking to get in ahead of significant changes implemented to the scheme which increased the minimum investment threshold to €800,000 across the entire Athenian Riviera, Thessaloniki, and all major islands.
This isn’t the first time that changes to the Greek Golden Visa programme have resulted in surging levels of demand.
In 2023, Greece raised the threshold for real estate investment from €250,000 to €500,000 in the most attractive and developed regions of the country, including all of central Athens. However, in the Athenian Riviera, certain areas retained a threshold of €250,000, such as the Piraeus region.
As a result of this change, 2022 saw an annual increase of 118.5% in the number of Golden Visa applications, followed by a further +94.8% increase in 2023.
Who is driving demand for Greek Golden Visas?
The high demand for Greek Golden Visas over the past two years in particular is being driven by wealthy US citizens looking to spread their risks and opportunities beyond the borders of North America, with demand being particularly influenced by the increased investment thresholds implemented in 2024.
Astons estimates that Greece is the focus of at least 50% of all Golden Visa applications by US citizens, with investors drawn to the country by the lifestyle offering, not to mention the attractive minimum investment contribution – for which investors get five years of residency for the whole family with a right to renew at the end of that term.
Furthermore, Greece currently has one of Europe’s most lucrative property markets and best performing economies.
Citizenship, residence permit, and real estate investment expert for Astons, Alena Lesina, commented:
“Looking ahead to 2025, we believe that demand for Greek golden visas will remain robust despite the recent changes made. This is because it is still possible to purchase real estate and obtain a residency permit for as little as €250,000, even in the very heart of Athens, provided that the property in question is converted from commercial use to residential. As such, we’re seeing a lot of developers now buying old hotels and office buildings and transforming them into modern residential complexes, complete with stunning swimming pools and terraces.
Another reason to expect further growth in demand for Greek visas in 2025 is the fact that Spain is about to close its own Golden Visa programme which was itself hugely popular. With Spain no longer available to expats, it’s reasonable to expect that Greece, with its similar lifestyle offering and even more affordable accessibility, will become the focus of their attention.”
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