Economy
Energy Editors See Significant Boost in Nigeria’s Oil, Gas in Q1 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Society of Energy Editors (SEE) expects the Nigerian energy sector to witness significant developments in the first quarter of 2025.
This, according to the society, would be driven by President Bola Tinubu’s proposed N49.7 trillion budget for the year.
The budget is anchored on an increase in base crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day, expected to drive down inflation from 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent in 2025.
In its Nigeria Energy Outlook Q1 2025, the group said key areas to watch in the energy sector in the first quarter of the year include oil oil exploration and production; domestic crude refining; gas production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export; power generation and transmission as well as labour relations.
“The government’s target to increase crude oil production is ambitious, but its feasibility hinges on addressing security challenges, particularly in the Niger Delta region.
“Nigeria plans to hold a fresh oil licensing round in 2025 focused primarily on handing out blocks that remained undeveloped, as the country battles to raise crude reserves and production,” it said in the outlook.
It added that “the federal government would have to show the necessary political will and apply a lot of push for this fresh oil licensing round to happen during the year as planned”.
On domestic refining, the organisation noted that the commencement of petroleum refining at the Dangote Refinery is expected to reduce fuel imports and ease the burden of petroleum subsidies.
However, it added that the steady supply of crude oil feedstock from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Refinery would be crucial in determining the refinery’s impact on the economy in 2025.
Nigeria spent N9.176 trillion on the importation of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, in nine months, from January to September 2024, rising by 60.87 percent, compared with N5.704 trillion worth of the commodity imported in the same period in 2023.
Focusing on gas production and LNG exports, the SEE projected that Nigeria’s gas sector will grow during the first quarter, driven by the government’s “Decade of Gas” initiative and the country’s ambitions to increase its gas reserves to 210 trillion cubic feet, Tcf, in 2025 and 220 Tcf by 2030.
“Gas production and supply will also increase in response to the Federal Government initiative on gas for automobiles and the need to meet the current shortfalls being experienced by power generating stations and industries,” it also projected.
According to the SEE, gas export through the Nigeria LNG Limited will be steady during the first quarter.
In the area of power generation and transmission, the Society of Energy Editors, said efforts to expand power generation and improve transmission infrastructure will continue, with a focus on increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix.
It maintained that power transmission and distribution infrastructure remained very weak with the national grid recording 12 incidents of collapse in 2024. Adding that 2025 would witness a repeat owing to poor mitigation measures aimed at tackling inherent weaknesses.
On labour relations, the society stated that the government would need to address labour concerns in the downstream and upstream petroleum sectors, as well as in the electricity sector, to maintain stability and avoid disruptions.
Listing challenges and opportunities, it noted that the government’s expectations for reducing inflation and improving the exchange rate may be challenging to achieve, given the current market realities.
It asserted that the development of the Niger Delta region, through the activities of the Niger Delta Development Commission, would be crucial in addressing the root causes of insecurity and instability in the region.
“The solid minerals sector offers significant opportunities for revenue growth and job creation, but the government will need to address the challenges of artisanal mining and ensure that the sector is developed in a sustainable and responsible manner.
“Overall, the first quarter of 2025 will be critical in setting the tone for Nigeria’s energy sector in the year ahead. The government’s policies and initiatives will need to be carefully implemented to address the challenges facing the sector and to unlock its full potential,” the report stated.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited suffered a 0.11 per cent loss on Thursday after the bears made a comeback after being chased away by the bulls a day earlier.
The local bourse was under attack despite a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment after it ended with 29 appreciating stocks and 23 depreciating stocks.
Business Post observed that profit-taking in some mid-equities plunged Customs Street during the trading session, with Fidson shedding 9.60 per cent to trade at N17.90.
Ecobank Nigeria depreciated by 9.51 per cent to sell for N31.40, Guinea Insurance lost 8.33 per cent to quote at 66 Kobo, Prestige Assurance slipped by 7.50 per cent to N1.11, and Sunu Assurances crashed by 6.44 per cent to N5.52.
On the flip side, PZ Cussons gained 10.00 per cent to settle at N32.45, Oando improved by 10.00 per cent to N52.80, Honeywell Flour appreciated by 9.96 per cent to N13.03, Caverton jumped by 9.80 per cent to N2.69, and Livestock Feeds rose by 9.35 per cent to N6.90.
Yesterday, the energy counter appreciated by 0.88 per cent and was the only gainer among the key sectors of the market.
The insurance sector went down by 0.92 per cent, the banking index depreciated by 0.75 per cent, the industrial goods space crumbled by 0.43 per cent, and the consumer goods sector lost 0.17 per cent, while the commodity counter closed flat.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 123.53 points to 107,675.46 points from 107,798.99 points and the market capitalisation retreated by N77 billion to N67.102 trillion from N67.179 trillion.
A total of 423.4 million equities worth N9.6 billion were traded in 11,112 deals on Thursday compared with the 245.5 million equities valued at N8.4 billion transacted in 10,098 deals on Wednesday, representing a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 72.46 per cent, 14.29 per cent and 10.04 per cent, apiece.
The activity chart was topped by FCMB with 102.3 million stocks valued at N1.1 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 33.3 million equities worth N1.6 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 31.2 million shares for N801.9 million, Jaiz Bank traded 24.4 million equities worth N82.0 million, and Caverton sold 20.9 million stocks valued at N54.6 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government, the 36 states, and the 774 local government areas of the federation have shared a total of N1.703 trillion in revenue generated in January 2025.
This amount represents an increase of 19.6 per cent or N279 billion from the N1.424 trillion generated in December 2024.
This is according to a press release by the Director (Press and Public Relations) at the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, Mr Bawa Mokwa, on Thursday,
The N1.703 trillion total distributable revenue comprises N749.727 billion in statutory revenue, N718.781 billion in Value Added Tax revenue, N20.548 billion from the Electronic Money Transfer Levy, and N214 billion in augmentation.
The statement was based on a communique issued by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) after its monthly meeting for February 2025.
It noted that the total gross revenue amounted to N2.641 trillion, which was slightly higher than the N2.310 trillion recorded in the previous month.
The total deduction for cost of collection was N107.786 billion while total transfers, interventions, refunds and savings was N830.663 billion.
It was disclosed that the federal government received N552.591 billion, state governments were allocated N590.614 billion, and the Local Government Councils received N434.567 billion, while an additional N125.284 billion was shared with benefiting states as derivation revenue as 13 per cent of mineral revenue.
The statement further noted that the gross statutory revenue for the month under review stood at N1.848 trillion, an increase of N622.125 billion from the N1.226 trillion recorded a month earlier.
Gross VAT revenue for the month was N771.886 billion, rising by N122.325 billion from N649.561 billion in December.
From the N749.727 billion statutory revenue, the federal government got N343.612bn, the state governments were given N174.285 billion, and the councils received N134.366 billion, while N97.464 billion was also allocated to states benefiting from derivation revenue.
Further, from the N718.781 billion VAT revenue, the federal government received N107.817 billion, state governments were got N359.391 billion, and Local Government Councils shared N251.573 billion.
For the N20.548 billion Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), the federal government received N3.082 billion, state governments received N7.192 billion, and Local Government Councils received N10.274 billion.
The N214 billion augmentation was shared with the federal government receiving N98.080 billion, state governments receiving N49.747 billion, and Local Government Councils receiving N38.353 billion, while N27.820 billion was shared among the benefiting states as derivation revenue.
The communique also highlighted increases in collections from VAT, Petroleum Profit Tax, Companies Income Tax, Excise Duty, Import Duty, and CET Levies, while there was a significant decrease in EMTL and Oil and Gas Royalty receipts.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday amid supply concerns after the US President, Mr Donald Trump, revoked a licence granted to US oil major, Chevron, to operate in Venezuela.
The news led Brent crude oil futures to spike by $1.53 or 2.1 per cent to $74.06 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures increased by $1.64 or 2.4 per cent to $70.26.
The Chevron licence revocation means the company will no longer be able to export Venezuelan crude.
However, if Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA, exports oil previously exported by Chevron, US refineries will be unable to buy it because of U.S. sanctions.
President Trump said this was due to the lack of electoral reform in the South American country alongside with insufficient action on migration.
Chevron has been exporting around 240,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude to the US daily after former US President Joe Biden granted them a waiver.
The amount constitutes around 25 per cent of the country’s total oil production and generates substantial revenues that stay in the Venezuelan economy.
Meanwhile, market analysts noted that the move could also lead to the negotiation of a fresh agreement between the Chevron and PDVSA to export crude to destinations other than the US.
This development could also impact the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, to which Venezuela is a member.
Chevron’s exit could reduce Venezuela oil’s production, giving OPEC+ capacity to increase output.
However, investors were still keeping an eye on signs of a potential peace deal in Ukraine, which could result in higher Russian oil flows.
President Trump said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will visit the US on Friday to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals.
However, the Ukrainian leader said the success of talks would hinge on continued US aid.
The market was pressured by news that US economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter amid cold weather and concerns that tariffs will hurt spending through higher prices.
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