SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Sales of new energy vehicles (NEV) in China, the world’s biggest auto market, will jump to 20% of overall new car sales by 2025 from just 5% now, and to 50% by 2035, the China Society of Automotive Engineers (China-SAE) said on Tuesday.
The association also predicts 95% of NEV sales in 2035 will be battery electric vehicles, while hybrid vehicles will make up the rest, China-SAE president Li Jun, told its annual conference in Shanghai.
Li’s presentation slide showed that China-SAE had slightly lowered its outlook for NEVs for 2025 to 20%, from a 25% goal mentioned in a policy proposal published by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology last year.
The influential industry body, whose members include senior auto executives and academics, is involved in setting the country’s mid- to long-term electric vehicle policies. The technology roadmap is not government policy, but is a key reference for policy makers, companies and investors.
Li also said carbon dioxide emissions from China’s auto industry were expected to peak around 2028, and drop to 20% of peak levels by 2035.
Chinese President Xi Jinping in September announced plans to boost the country’s Paris climate accord target, saying that it would achieve a peak in carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.
NEVs include battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. The industry expects China to sell around 1.1 million NEVs this year.
Li expected China to have around 1 million hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles between 2030 and 2035.